Recession – Event Planer Wed, 23 Nov 2022 06:58:27 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Recession – Event Planer 32 32 No recession, but slow and weak growth Wed, 23 Nov 2022 06:58:27 +0000

The OECD said the global economy will avoid a recession this year and next, and unemployment rates will not soar. That was the good news.

But growth will be weak and slow, and inflation will remain high, which will keep central bank policies tight. That was the bad news

The S&P500 gained 1.36% yesterday, while the Nasdaq gained almost 1.50%. Strong retail profits boosted sentiment ahead of Thanksgiving.

Energy stocks performed well thanks to a sustained rally in crude oil. Exxon Mobil jumped nearly 3% as U.S. crude consolidated near £80 following a tumble after the WSJ reported OPEC+ was considering a one-year production boost. half a million barrels, which Saudi Arabia quickly denied.

Additionally, European gas futures are heading higher after Gazprom is now threatening to cut off gas supplies to Europe next week via the last remaining pipeline…and the timing is excellent as we begin just feeling the cold of winter. Higher natural gas futures are also a positive for oil.

One piece of news that could soften the bull’s hand is the EU possibly easing its plan regarding the Russian oil price cap. They offer a transition period of 45 days and a potentially higher price level than that sought by the $40-$60 markets. The Europeans will discuss all of this today. What the Europeans want is to keep Russian oil on the market to avoid a price spike, but to prevent the Russians from earning too much from their oil sales.

goodbye shell

Shell rallied 5% on news that the company would review its UK investment to avoid paying windfall taxes to the UK government. BP rebounded 6.52%.

The rally in energy stocks helped the FTSE gain more than 1%, along with the OECD’s less aggressive recession prediction, relative to the Brits themselves.

FTSE futures are pointing to a slightly positive start on Wednesday.

RBNZ increases by 75 basis points

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised rates by 75 basis points as expected today. In total, the RBNZ has raised rates by 400 basis points since October last year, but the kiwi has not benefited from higher rates from the RBNZ, as the US dollar has been and currently is the only driver. value in the foreign exchange markets.

The US Dollar softened yesterday, allowing some majors to breathe. EURUSD bounced back above 1.0320 amid mixed comments on what the European Central Bank (ECB) should do at its next meeting.

The expectation is tilted towards a 50 basis point hike at the December meeting, as the latest Reuters poll showed that more than 70% of participants expect a 50 basis point hike next month, at the instead of an increase of 75 basis points.

Will this slow down the recovery of the euro? It depends on the US dollar. If the dollar extends its losses, the EURUSD will be fine. The thing is, the outlook for the US dollar remains positive thanks to an ever-hawkish Fed, which will fight inflation to the last drop of blood.

In precious metals, gold slid yesterday despite a weaker US dollar and weaker yields. The yellow metal declined to $1732 an ounce, and hawkish expectations from the Fed should push the price further towards the $1720 target, to hit the 100-DMA.

Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are not looking good as Beijing and Shanghai impose tougher rules to slow Covid contagion, yet again! But Alibaba rebounded nearly 4% in HK today following news that Ant Group would pay a fine of more than $1 billion, which would end a regulatory overhaul, help the company to continue its life and would secure the long-awaited holding of the financial company. Licence.

In cryptocurrencies, traders remain on high alert, learning that a “substantial amount” of FTX assets have been stolen or are missing. Bitcoin is resisting, however. The price of a coin rallied above $16,000 yesterday, but risks remain on the downside.

Dow Jones Futures: Cisco, Nvidia shift earnings; The key signal of the recession is intensifying Wed, 16 Nov 2022 22:32:00 +0000

Dow Jones futures rose slightly overnight, as did S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, with profits from Nvidia and Cisco leading the way.


The stock market recovery has retreated amid weakness Target (TGT) revenue and vacation forecasts, as well as Micron Technology (MU) cutting memory chip production plans. The bond market is showing greater recession risks, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fall while short-term rates remain high.

VE Giant You’re here (TSLA) fell, posting the weakest recent performance among megacap stocks.


Nvidia (NVDA), lithium giant Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (m²) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) headlined Wednesday night’s earnings.

NVDA stock fell slightly in overnight trade after mixed earnings and guidance.

CSCO stock rose 3% in extended action as Cisco beat fiscal first-quarter views and increased revenue. Cisco stock fell 1.1% on Wednesday, trading between its 50- and 200-day lines. IBD Ranking Stock Arista Networks (ANET) edged higher on Cisco earnings.

SQM earnings are still due tonight. SQM stock fell 2.6% on Wednesday, down more than 10% this week on concerns about the price of lithium. The Chilean lithium and fertilizer giant is in a cup basis with a buy point of 115.82. It could be a handful.

The Chinese e-commerce giant Ali Baba (BABA) and department store chains in the United States Macy’s (M) and Kohls (KSS) are expected early Thursday. BABA shares fell slightly on Wednesday, but after rising 11% on Tuesday. Shares of Macy’s and KSS fell on Wednesday following Target’s holiday warning.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures were up 0.1% from fair value. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3%. CSCO stock is a component of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but Nvidia has a bigger weight on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Remember that overnight action on futures contracts on Dow and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular trading session.

Join the experts at IBD as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Stock market rally

The stock market rally lost ground on Thursday, with small caps and tech leading the decline.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 0.1% in Wednesday’s stock trading. The S&P 500 index lost 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite slipped 1.5%. The small cap Russell 2000 was down 1.8%.

U.S. crude oil prices fell 1.5% to $85.59 a barrel. Natural gas futures rose 2.8%.

Treasury yield curve flashes recession risk

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 11 basis points to 3.69%, the lowest since early October and down from 4.15% a week earlier. The benchmark Treasury yield is now below the current federal funds rate range of 3.75%-4%, with the Fed expected to raise rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% in the month next.

The two-year Treasury yield, more closely tied to Fed policy, was flat at 4.36%, while the three-month rate is at 4.23%. The growing inversion of the yield curve between three-month and 10-year Treasuries is the highest for a brief period at the end of 2019. This indicates an increase in the risks of recession, or at best negligible economic growth in 2023 .

Fed Chief Jerome Powell and some of his colleagues have signaled that a recession may be needed to get inflation under control, though other policymakers see a decent chance of a soft landing.

The still-inverted yield curve comes amid still-robust labor markets and a strong retail sales report for October.


Among the top ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 1.7%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) lost just over 1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) lost 2.1% as many cloud software names had a bad session. ETF VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH) fell 3.6%, along with Nvidia shares and major Micron components.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) slipped just over 2% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) fell 0.5%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 2.4%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) fell 1.4%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) was down 2% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) was down 0.5%. The SPDR healthcare sector fund (XLV) finished just below the break-even point.

Reflecting more speculative stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 5.15% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) fell 3.7%. Tesla stock remains a major holding in Ark Invest’s ETFs.

Five best Chinese stocks to watch now

Nvidia Earnings

Nvidia’s revenue missed third-quarter views, but revenue fell less than expected. Demand for data center chips remained strong. Gaming revenue plunged, but not as badly as expected. The chip giant fell slightly on fourth-quarter sales.

Nvidia stock rose 1% in active trading overnight. Shares fell 4.5% to 159.10 on Wednesday. But NVDA stock has surged since hitting a bear market low of 108.13 on Oct. 13 on hopes that business will improve going forward. The chip giant moved well above its 50-day line but is still below its 200-day line.

Nvidia stock has no buy point in sight. Ideally, stocks would rally above the 200-day line and forge a new base.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock fell 3.9% on Wednesday to 186.92. Although above its two-year low of 177.12 set on November 9, TSLA stock is touching resistance at the 10-day moving average. The electric vehicle giant has not closed above its 21-day line since Sept. 21.

Other megacaps have struggled, but Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and parent company of Google Alphabet (GOOGL) are above their 50-day moving averages, while even Facebook-parent Metaplatforms (META) is above its 21-day line.

Meanwhile, other electric vehicle stocks look as bad or worse than Tesla. CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter reign could also weigh on TSLA shares in a variety of ways.

Musk testified on Wednesday in a court case over 2018 Tesla stock options that account for about $50 billion of his wealth. He hinted that he would not remain the head of Twitter permanently.

Tesla vs. BYD: Which electric giant is the best buy?

Market rally analysis

The stock market rally was likely due to a pause or pullback, and that’s what happened on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones held comfortably above the 200-day line, stopping just below its August short-term highs. The S&P 500 looks pretty normal, with a slight decline not far from the 200-day line.

The Nasdaq is still clearly above the 50-day line, but is back below its October short-term highs. The Russell 2000 fell below the 200-day line and broke above Monday’s intraday low.

Meanwhile, several stocks that have issued buy signals in recent sessions have come back down on Wednesday. Growth plays largely faltered as defensive names rebounded and defensive growth stocks held firm, although many retailers fell on Target’s earnings woes.

If the market recovers in the near future, Wednesday’s action will soon be forgotten. But if the Nasdaq drops below its 50-day mark and major stocks come under more pressure, that will be worrisome.

While markets have rightly focused on Fed policy, there are other concerns. Still, the cumulative effect of the Fed’s rate hikes this year is weighing heavily on the economy. And the impact will continue for several months after the end of the rate hikes.

The inverted yield curve reflects rising recession risks.

Even now, the combination of high inflation and weaker demand is weighing heavily. Target earnings showed that, although rival walmart (WMT) has achieved solid results and advice. Inflation may slowly fade over the coming year, but that doesn’t mean the outlook for corporate earnings and stock prices is bright.

Time the Market with IBD’s ETF Market Strategy

What to do now

Wednesday’s action offers a reason why investors should be cautious before quickly adding exposure. Buying a bunch of new positions in one day can backfire if the market pulls back, as it did on Wednesday. Better to add exposure gradually, assuming the market recovers and your positions grow.

The stock market rally is still good, but it is subject to strong swings, sector rotations and earnings surprises. It is still unclear which actions and which sectors will lead. So don’t focus too much on one particular industry or theme.

But you want to update your watchlists regularly, casting a wide net.

Early registrations are always important. Traditional buy points, especially if significantly above the 50-day line, haven’t done particularly well.

Investors may still want to take partial profits when they get a quick gain on a stock. This can give you the confidence to hold onto the remaining stake for longer and will protect your portfolio against stock swings.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in tune with market direction and top stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.


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The 200-day average: the last line of support?

The global recession is a bigger risk to Russia’s oil revenues than the price cap Sun, 13 Nov 2022 22:18:47 +0000

Russia’s oil export revenues are at far greater risk from a global economic downturn than the price cap forecast by the United States and the European Union.

Recession is a surefire way to reduce Russia’s revenue from the export of crude, diesel and other refined products.

In the event of a global economic slowdown in 2023, Russia’s export earnings could drop by a third to a half, based on the experience of the past two decades.

US and European policymakers will not deliberately plunge their economies into a recession just to intensify economic pressure on Russia; deprivation is not an attractive option in electoral politics.

But if their economies slip into recession anyway, which currently seems likely, Russia’s export earnings will fall sharply.

The price caps planned by the G7 and the European Union on Russian exports of crude from December 5 and products from February 5 represent an attempt to achieve the same reduction in income without tipping economies into the recession.

Russia’s crude export volumes have remained broadly stable between 220 and 260 million tonnes per year between 2004 and 2021, according to trade statistics compiled by the United Nations.

Commodity exports more than doubled from 81 million tonnes in 2004 to 186 million tonnes in 2016, but have since fallen back to around 145 million tonnes per year since 2018.

Revenues were much more variable and closely correlated to the price of Brent. Russia’s annual revenues peaked at between $263 billion and $283 billion a year during the period of very high prices between 2011 and 2013.

They fell to $140 billion during the 2009 recession; $130-165 billion during the volume wars and mid-cycle slowdown of 2015-2017; and $118 billion during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Like other major oil exporters, Russia’s earnings are strongly pro-cyclical, enjoying a double-hit in booms due to rising volumes and prices, and a double-hit in booms. decreases due to lower prices and deliveries.

Chartbook: Russia’s Oil Exports

If the proposed crude price cap were set at around $70-75 a barrel, with appropriate mark-ups for refined products, this would result in revenues close to the decade average between 2012 and 2021.

For US and European policymakers, this is clearly a superior option, but there are questions about whether the cap is feasible.

The cap depends on the segmentation of the global market into separate markets for sanctioned and non-sanctioned oil, with different prices prevailing in each for what is essentially the same product.

Firms routinely segment markets to charge different prices to customers based on characteristics such as customer type, age, gender, ability to pay, stickiness, order size, and ability to access to alternatives.

In this case, US and EU sanctions, including on the provision of shipping, payment and insurance services, aim to ensure that the segments remain separate.

Sanctioned oil could only be traded freely below the price cap, while unsanctioned oil could be traded at any price, including prices well above the cap.

Sanctions regulations will be designed to ensure that sanctioned oil cannot be transferred across the barrier to become non-sanctioned oil.

However, like any company that tries to maintain segmented markets, the barrier will be more stressed as the price difference between the two markets is greater.

If the crude cap is set at $60-65 a barrel, while rogue crude is trading at $120, the incentives for circumvention will be enormous.

If the cap is set at $75-80, while unauthorized barrels are trading at $85-90, the segmentation will be easier to maintain.

The effectiveness of market segmentation will therefore depend on (a) the level at which caps are set; (b) current prices for crude and unauthorized products; and (c) the intensity of enforcement of sanctions.

A low crude price cap of $60 a barrel would aggressively reduce Russian revenue, but could be difficult to sustain if rogue oil prices rise above $100 and hinge on heavy enforcement.

A high price cap of $80 would have much less impact on Russian revenues, but would be easier to maintain if prices stayed around $90-100, and could be largely self-enforcing.

Current prices for crude and refined products are constantly changing, so caps should be adjusted regularly to maintain the same level of segmentation with the same level of enforcement.

Policy makers would also have the ability to modulate the intensity of enforcement to make the barrier between the two market segments more or less porous.

For example, with crude prices currently at $90-100 a barrel, policymakers could opt for a low cap of $60 but a relatively relaxed approach to enforcement, or $80 with a tighter enforcement.

The options look very different, but the practical outcome could be the same: a lower cap makes decision makers appear tougher while a softer application lowers the practical barrier.

Recession and price caps are proving to be complementary rather than substitute approaches to reducing Russia’s oil revenues.

The recession would lower prices for unauthorized oil, making it easier to enforce a lower cap. If recession is averted and prices rise, it will become much more difficult to maintain a low cap without more enforcement.

Sanctions against oil producers are easier to introduce and enforce when the market is characterized by excess production and excess production capacity.

Over the past three decades, sanctions against Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and Iran have all been introduced when there was a market surplus and/or alternative supplies were available.

But the market is currently in deficit and alternative suppliers such as US shale companies and Saudi Arabia have been unwilling or unable to increase production.

Russia accounted for 13% of global production in 2021, and an even higher share of crude traded by tanker, far higher than Iraq, Libya, Venezuela or Iran at the time they were sanctioned.

At present, the world market’s marginal barrel comes from Russia, and the terms on which it is made available will determine prices for all other producers and consumers.

If Russia refused to sell all or part of its exports at the capped price, it would worsen the global shortage and drive up prices for unauthorized oil.

Even a reduction in Russian crude exports of 1-2 million barrels per day would likely push prices back above $100 and potentially much higher.

Shortages of diesel and other middle distillates are even worse than for crude, and consumers rely heavily on Russia for them.

In the event of a recession, crude and diesel consumption would be affected, reducing the appeal to crude exporters and Russian refineries.

Ultimately, if oil consumption fell by an (unlikely) 8 million barrels per day, equivalent to a deep depression or the first round of coronavirus lockdowns, consuming countries would have no need for oil at all. Russian.

Even a more plausible drop of 2 million barrels per day, equivalent to a deep recession, would significantly erode Russia’s market power.

Recession remains an extremely unattractive option for US and European policymakers. The alternative to reducing dependence on Russian exports is to encourage other sources of supply.

The need to make the sanctions policy feasible at an acceptable cost explains why US and European policymakers have shown interest in easing sanctions against Venezuela and have kept alive the prospect of a nuclear deal with Iran.

It also explains why the Biden administration has lobbied vehemently, if not ineffectively, to increase domestic crude production and diesel production from U.S. refineries.
Source: Reuters (Writing by John Kemp; Editing by Susan Fenton)

UK recession: what does it mean for me and will it impact jobs? Fri, 11 Nov 2022 10:32:00 +0000

A man walking past a closed store

The UK is in the early stages of what could be a major economic crisis (Picture: Bloomberg)

It’s official, the UK is on the way to a recession.

The data released this morning confirmed what experts have been warning for several months now.

While it’s not quite settled yet, it’s hard to find a single voice that thinks anything other than a long period of sluggishness is in store for the economy.

A recession is defined by economists looking at numbers on a spreadsheet, but the effects are real and are felt across the country.

There is still a lot of uncertainty about the UK’s outlook, but we already know enough about what is likely to happen next.

Here’s everything you need to know about the impending downturn.

What is a recession?

A recession is officially defined as two successive quarters in which the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP), a large measure of the size of the country’s economy, reverses.

Two quarters equals six months, although the economy does not have to contract in all of them. Instead, economists look at the general trend over these two periods.

All recessions are different, but it basically means that industries don’t grow, the job market stagnates or contracts, and there’s less money going back to the treasury to pay for public services.

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How close are we to being in a recession?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), the body responsible for tracking the data, confirmed that the economy contracted between July and September.

It hasn’t collapsed and some fear it could have been worse – but the numbers don’t lie and we are officially halfway through a recession.

If the same pattern repeats over the next three months to the end of 2022, the ONS will confirm at some point in February 2023 that we are officially in a recession.

What will a recession mean for jobs?

The job market has been disrupted by the pandemic and has not fully returned to normal, with many people over 50 choosing not to return to work.

Long-term illnesses and early retirements have seen the number of people classified as economically ‘inactive’ rise to more than a fifth of the working-age population and some sectors have struggled with labor shortages work aggravated by post-Brexit immigration changes.

Jobseekers queue outside a Jobcentre Plus branch in London

The Bank of England has warned that unemployment rates are likely to rise in the coming months (Picture: Getty)

This has created a situation where the labor market is “tight” – that is, there are vacancies but suitable workers are scarce, which in some cases drives up wages in these sectors (as happened with the shortage of truck drivers after the confinement).

While that’s not exactly a recipe for growth, it does mean the unemployment rate is just 3.5%, the lowest level since 1974.

However, some signs could be changing and a recent labor market survey revealed signs that employers are starting to be wary of hiring new people.

Audit firm KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation said hiring slowed in October for the first time in 20 months, suggesting the post-Covid jobs boom – which was already less pronounced than in most European countries – is coming to an end. .

A container ship is moored next to cranes in the UK's largest container port, Felixstowe

Poor global economic conditions and post-Brexit issues are hitting international trade (Photo: Reuters)

Its findings that ‘the impending recession is clearly having an impact on the UK labor market’ were backed up by a separate survey of the state of employment in Scotland by RBS which found a similar downturn.

Yesterday’s collapse of and the loss of hundreds of jobs is a reminder that existing roles can quickly disappear in tough economic times.

The Bank of England has warned that unemployment could hit around 6.5% if the recession is as long and deep as it fears.

If not, how will a recession affect people?

Recessions hit different people in different ways, so it’s hard to give a general answer to this.

What we can say with certainty is that given the government’s strategy to deal with it, which is to rein in spending, people who depend on public services will notice a difference.

The same will be true for public sector workers, who are unlikely to see a significant increase in wages for some time, and it remains to be seen what will happen with benefits and pensions in the November 17 budget and beyond.

Young people and school leavers are usually disproportionately affected by recessions, as it is even more difficult for them to find a first job.

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Retail spending is already down as families look to save money, according to the latest ONS data, so a recession is likely to hit small businesses like shops, pubs and the restaurants.

This will impact the people who work for them, who will struggle to get a raise or promotion and could even be fired.

The weak British pound should be good news for exporters, but a slowdown in global trade caused by rising inflation is bad news for businesses and it will also impact people working in these industries.

How long will the recession last?

The Bank of England warned earlier this month that Britain’s economy could contract for two years if its direst predictions materialize, longer than after the 2008 global financial crisis.

But it’s important to note that even during the time economists were working on these forecasts, a lot has changed (including the collapse of a government and the complete reversal of Treasury economic policy).

Whoever is in charge in the UK, big global factors such as energy prices, the war in Ukraine and China’s continued lockdown policy will all play a significant role and it’s hard to say for sure how. these things will happen.

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are betting hard on restoring the UK’s economic credibility by targeting public debt and the deficit by raising taxes and cutting spending on November 17.

By assuring businesses that the Treasury will be able to pay its bills and maintain a stable economic environment in the future, they hope that private investment will flow into the UK, boost growth and lift the country out of recession.

Contact our press team by emailing us at

For more stories like this, see our news page.

Barclays cuts China’s GDP after forecasting recession in US and Europe Fri, 04 Nov 2022 01:04:00 +0000

Chinese export growth has slowed in recent months after surging at the height of the pandemic around the world. Pictured is a wind turbine blade being loaded onto a cargo ship at Yantai Port on November 1, 2022.

CGV | Visual Group China | Getty Images

BEIJING — Barclays cut its forecast for China’s economic growth next year to 3.8%, partly on expectations of lower global demand for Chinese goods.

The company’s US and European economics teams predict recessions next year, Hong Kong-based Barclays’ Jian Chang and Yingke Zhou said in a report on Wednesday.

As a result, they now expect Chinese exports to fall 2% to 5% in 2023, compared to previous expectations of 1% growth, according to the report.

“China’s share of global exports has declined this year,” analysts said. “Foreign companies appear to have shifted their orders from China to its Asian neighbors, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh and India, for the production of some key labor-intensive goods.”

Exports remain an important driver of China’s economy, especially as the pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and generated intense demand for healthcare and electronics products.

Chinese exports jumped 29.8% last year in U.S. dollars, following a 3.6% increase in 2020, according to the customs agency.

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However, the pace of growth has slowed this year. In September, year-to-date export growth was 12.5%.

The last time Chinese exports fell was in 2016, according to customs data.

Real estate train

Barclays’ new Chinese GDP forecast for 2023 of 3.8% comes after cutting it to 4.5% in September due to falling real estate investment.

Analysts’ latest GDP decline includes expectations for a steeper decline in real estate investment, of 8% to 10%, compared to previous forecasts of a single-digit decline.

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China’s real estate sector and related industries contribute about a quarter of GDP. The housing market has slumped over the past two years as Beijing has clamped down on developers’ heavy reliance on debt for growth, while consumer demand for home purchases has plunged.

Tight Covid controls have restrained consumer sentiment overall, and hopes that China will soon ease restrictions helped propel a rally in stocks this week. Beijing has yet to make an official announcement regarding changes to its “dynamic zero-Covid policy”.

High household debt

Even if the country reopens fully, Barclays analysts said they remain cautious about the extent of the recovery in China’s consumer and service sectors due to rising household debt.

In fact, their analysis found that China’s household debt-to-disposable income ratio has in recent years surpassed that seen in the United States in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

“Our base case assumes no major stimulus announcements, at least before the Central Economic Work Conference in December, when the new administration sets its policy priorities,” the Barclays report said.

In the third quarter, official data shows China’s economy grew 3% for the year so far.

That’s below the official target of around 5.5%, but close to lower investment bankers’ expectations for 2022.

Other banks are cutting their forecasts for 2023

In recent months, other analysts have lowered their forecasts for China’s GDP for next year.

Nomura lowered its forecast to 4.3% from 5.1%. China’s chief economist Ting Lu noted the impact of Covid, weaker exports, a slow recovery in real estate and a weaker car market after passenger car sales surged this year.

In September, Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 5.3%, “given the delayed rebound from China’s reopening.”

Why China shows no signs of backing down from its strategy
How can developers secure investments with a looming recession? Tue, 01 Nov 2022 15:27:53 +0000

The video game industry is often described as recession proof. However, 2022 has already proven to be a turbulent year and this resilience is no longer assured.

At GI Live London’s investment and publishing panel, experts discussed how funding for video game companies is changing in times of economic uncertainty.

London Venture Partners senior analyst Harry Hamer pointed out that this time is different now that there are both free and premium gaming business models. He adds that gaming only had competition with film and television in the past.

“I think you’re going to have to think about players who spend a lot of money, at least compared to the free-to-play environment,” he explained. “Will this recession affect them negatively, will it reduce their spending more or less than, say, a premium game?

As a result, he says, investors think long term. Thus, it is understood that when studios present their game, the actual game presented may not be the final product.

“Even if there is a recession, it shouldn’t really affect what’s interesting five to ten years from now.”Harry Hamer, London Venture Partners

He adds: “Even if there is a recession, it shouldn’t really affect what’s interesting five to ten years from now.”

Curve Games VP of Partnerships Bobby Wertheim echoed that sentiment, describing the investment as something of a marathon. He noted that his funding focuses on games that provide player experiences that can evolve over time.

“I like working with studios that have a longer term vision and games become like a platform for the community that we’re creating together…” he said, adding that teams with a vision to long term of their title are what he considers to be “sure values”. .’

However, Curran Games Agency founder Cassia Curran offered a cautious outlook for studios looking for funding. She notes that they need to be prepared if a publisher supporting them goes bankrupt.

She pointed out that many new publishing houses have sprung up in recent years, but question their longevity. The impact would be significant, and Curran says it’s a scenario game makers should have in their business plans.

“On the publisher side, I kind of advise studios that are trying to find publishers or have had offers to be careful and think about what will happen if that publisher goes bankrupt in the next few years,” Curran said.

While Square Enix Collective producer Lauren Hunter has questioned the viability of funding studios that have recently been created during COVID-19. She explains that they may have difficulty approaching investors.

“They kind of go into that phase where they have something to share and present,” he explained. “Publishers may be looking for something more reliable in the market. It’s horrible to almost have to argue with these creative and passionate people. Where do you stand in the market?”

Hunter elaborated further, saying these studios really had to think about who would buy their game, especially with the recession looming. She adds that people will also be more conscientious with their time and money.

“How are you going to sell to a publisher that this is something people are going to invest their time and money in rather than a free or AAA title,” he explains.

On the publisher side, panelists discussed whether publisher support is still necessary for game companies, especially in a time when it’s easier than ever to self-publish on PC and mobile.

Wertheim noted that if a team is short on time, money, and has a game to release, it will cause a lot of problems. A publisher would provide developers with additional time and money to give them time to polish a game. Benefits would also include support such as marketing and additional resources after a title’s initial release.

“I think on many levels it helps to have an editor.”Bobby Wertheim, games of curves

“I’m married, I have two children, I want to make sure they continue to have a roof over their heads,” he explained. “Rather than putting all my eggs in this basket and taking all the risk myself, I think on many levels it helps to have an editor.”

Hunter explains that partnerships with publishers can also be beneficial outside of their business support roles. Some may also provide game development advice to help a title ship. Additionally, she points out that publishers can recognize if a studio has achievable development and post-launch goals.

“I think there’s a lot of industry expertise that an editor can bring in terms of coaching that’s not just financial,” she said.

Hamer says studios can put themselves in a better position by working with more established publishing labels. He encourages them to do their own research and to review each other’s work as well.

“See what their experience is like, almost like asking them to answer you – ‘Why should I come with you?’ It’s the same on the venture capital investment side,” he added.

“We try to allow the studios to have multiple shots on goal. Maybe if the first game doesn’t go through… [studios] are able to pivot with this game or go in a new direction, that’s something we’re working on with our studios.”

Curran recommends that developers research which editors work best for them on a case-by-case basis. For example, some partners have a good track record of launching a studio’s first title. There are others that can also help in the search for an advertising campaign. She adds that researching specialization would determine whether a company needs a publisher label or an investor.

“If your game is more of a community-focused title, you’ll also want to build a fanbase around your studio,” she explained. “You want to make multiple games in that specific niche or genre that you inhabit. I would say maybe now think about finding a publisher, getting project funding or an investor.

Curran notes that, depending on the specificity of the studio, it would be better to develop internal capabilities such as community management. This level of player feedback to the developer requires a more hands-on position, so a publisher could potentially get in the way.

She adds that given a team’s experience or goals, it’s possible to self-publish and be successful in that role.

The experts then tackled probably the biggest question for game companies; what do promoters need to convince investors to bet on them?

“In all honesty, the prototype or demo, the vertical slice, that’s the first major piece that’s compelling to release,” Curran replied.

She said it was crucial to have a fun game and to demonstrate that the team can achieve the intended goals. However, showcasing this capability is crucial, especially for a beginner studio.

“The question I always get from developers is how polished, extended and big should the prototype demo be?” she explained. “And that still varies a lot by studio.

“If you’re a first-time studio, you probably really want to have a full vertical slice.”Cassia Curran, Curran Gaming Agency

“So the more experience your studio has, the less advanced it is, you can get away with a less advanced prototype. Or if you’re a first-time studio, you probably really want to have a full vertical slice.”

She further explained, with so many games available, the best way to stand out is with a good prototype.

Hunter shared the same sentiment but urged developers to tweak their work before launching, especially if their project is more complex, like a competitive multiplayer game.

She explained that having a better technical understanding of the game makes development relatively simple. Whereas if a game has to be rebuilt from scratch, it would hurt the relationship with investors.

“You want to keep moving, so understanding all the complicated aspects of any type of game you release in advance is really good,” she added. “And having a good production plan is good too.”

Hamer explains that in terms of a demo, his group of investors doesn’t need it. Instead, it looks for why a potential investment is worth the bet.

He concluded: “We’re looking to maximize the benefits of whatever big, ambitious thing you’re heading for. Maybe it won’t be the big game that changes the industry, but really it’s just a pretty bad market. served, maybe a small niche but it’s going to be a great source of income for you and also for the publisher, so why not get started?”

The 2023 recession has already made that 8.4% dividend cheap Sat, 29 Oct 2022 14:35:00 +0000

It’s almost 2023, and we’re on the brink of something that’s never happened in our lifetime: a recession is coming – and when it does, it will surprise nobody.

Believe it or not, it’s good news because it allows us to buy stocks – and high-yield closed-end funds (CEFs) – at low prices at present. We don’t have to wait months for the recession to subside.

I have an 8.4% yielding CEF to consider below. It’s discounted twice: once because the stocks he owns, which include standout S&P 500 stocks like Visa

(V), United Health (UNH)
and (AMZN), have sold, and secondly because the fund itself is trading at a rare discount.

Now is the time to buy this one. Here’s why.

The ‘real’ yield curve locks into a 2023 recession

A closely watched recession predictor is the relationship between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields. When the yield on the two-year movements above that of the 10 years, a recession is likely on the way.

This is fairly well understood by most people, but this much-vaunted indicator has sometimes been wrong. That’s why I’m looking for a reversal in three-month and ten-year treasury yields, which predicted every recession of the past 50 years. And the shorter yield did peak briefly above the 10-year yield in mid-October, indicating that a recession is on the way, likely within a year.

The stock markets are hardly surprised; they’ve been evaluating a recession for a year now. And that’s where our buying opportunity lies, because that’s extremely rare for stocks to fall into a bear market for 12 months.

In fact, he didn’t happened before a recession in the past 50 years. During this period, stocks were either down slightly, flat (2001, 2008) or up (1991, 2020) in the year before the recession. In other words, this recession is the more anticipated in recent history and the most expensive.

How long you have to wait

This probably means that we won’t have to wait as long for prices to recover from the recession, because the market is ready. But how long will we have to wait?

Average waiting time: one year

Historically speaking, negative one-year returns are quite rare (they occur 20.7% of the time in total), and those negative returns turn positive. 100% of the time if we wait long enough.

Over time, negative periods disappear

Also note that many of these unusually long periods when the market offers negative returns were between the dot. assess future downturns. In other words, the opposite today’s market conditions.

Large unpopped bubbles lead to the longest slowdowns

This clearly shows that the market priced in more pain than usual, including a recession, something stocks haven’t done in two generations. That’s why now can be the better time to buy.

An 8.4% dividend to play this pre-recession dip

There are three ways to buy this built-in recession: stocks, ETFs or, our favorite route, high-yield CEFs.

I say “our preferred path” because CEFs pay us over 7% in dividends, so we get most of our return in safe cash. CEFs also regularly trade at discounted prices compared to their real value (and especially today) and allow us to hold the same branded stocks we probably hold now, except with much higher dividends than we we get by buying them ourselves.

A CEF like the Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG), for example, owns many big names in the S&P 500 while paying an 8.4% dividend yield. ASG can afford to pay this large payout by periodically and strategically selling its holdings and taking profits, which it then returns to investors in the form of cash dividends.

Also, as I mentioned at the beginning, ASG is on sale in two ways: first, it is now trading at a 2.4% discount to net asset value (NAV, or the value of the shares of its portfolio), even if it is traded at a prime for most of the past decade.

ASG has historically outperformed the market, but it converged on the S&P 500 in 2022 as its tech holdings saw a bigger selloff than the broader market and its normally large premium (which was 20% in 2018 and over 10% for most of 2020 and 2021) turned into a discount. This gives us two opportunities for profit: first when ASG’s portfolio returns to the historical average outperformance of the S&P 500 and as the fund’s discount disappears.

Until these things happen, we have a yield of 8.4% to keep us flush with cash and help us avoid selling in a bear market.

Michael Foster is Senior Research Analyst for Opposite perspectives. For more revenue ideas, click here for our latest report »Indestructible income: 5 advantageous funds with stable dividends of 10.2%.

Disclosure: none

79% of executives expect a recession, but only 35% feel “very” prepared: weekly statistics Wed, 26 Oct 2022 15:01:30 +0000

As the likelihood of a recession continues to rise heading into the new year, a recent Aon survey of 800 C-suite executives and senior executives found that a majority of organizational leaders are , admittedly, underprepared for a major economic downturn.

While the survey found nearly 79% of executives believed a recession was coming in 2023, 47% of respondents said they were only somewhat prepared. Almost a fifth (18%) said they were not prepared at all.

Take risks

“The most prepared leaders are not willing to let a volatile present prevent them from preparing for an undoubtedly more complex and risky future,” said Aon Chairman Eric Andersen. CFO. “Our research shows that companies need to balance taking steps to deal with short-term conditions without sacrificing long-term planning.”

Eric Andersen.jpg

Eric Anderson

While rising commodity costs and a looming financial crisis top the list of what executives are spending their time preparing for (43% and 42%, respectively), the data shows that concerns are not over. on a par with preparing for next year’s economy. . Among survey respondents who consider themselves highly prepared, 62% agreed that their company’s appetite for risk has increased in response to the expected economic fallout.

According to the data, 61% of these same highly prepared leaders agreed that all risk is interconnected and that the most successful companies can manage risk regardless of its origin. Andersen stressed the importance of leadership that properly assesses and addresses risk in all economic conditions, but especially at the end of this year as we approach 2023.

“Leaders can both protect their organization and grow their business by understanding the interconnected nature of risk, addressing those risks, and managing them during periods of volatility,” he said. “Leaders who make better risk-informed decisions will be better prepared to navigate and achieve growth during periods of high volatility.”

Preserve long-term investments

Prepared leaders also seek to preserve their long-term investments in the face of a downturn. Rather than cutting things that will pay long-term dividends, short-term cuts are being made in areas like marketing (68% of respondents making cuts) and R&D (48%). Sixty-six percent of prepared leaders also raised their prices as a form of preparatory action. About half (51%) of respondents said they were delaying raising capital or taking on new debt, while just under half (49%) said they had slowed down or frozen hiring.

For the less prepared, their immediate actions resemble those of executives who consider themselves prepared. About 60% said they had both reduced their marketing budgets and increased their prices. However, the unprepared had a slightly stronger appetite for new capital, with only 42% of respondents saying they had delayed raising capital or taken on new debt.

The most drastic difference concerned the actions concerning the workforce. According to survey data, 45% of prepared executives have begun laying off employees as a strategy to prepare for a recession, but only 32% of unprepared say they have done the same.

Prepared leaders also began to see the value of bringing in outside experts. According to the data, 62% of highly prepared leaders agreed that a good outside advisor or consultant can help improve their organization’s ability to manage risk and make better decisions. In contrast, about half of unprepared leaders felt the same way.

Reconsider the decision-making process

Decision-making data showed that 47% of prepared leaders said they would turn to information technology to help with decision-making in the future, while 41% of unprepared leaders said says the same thing. A majority of the unprepared group (55%) said they would lean on senior management, while a third (33%) said they would lean on accounting or finance for a majority of its decision support. The prepared group also found it useful to use the C-suite and finance department when making decisions, despite the wisdom of leveraging IT and external consultants.

Regarding trust in external opinions and consultants, a drastic difference in the two groups was reported. While 62% of prepared people said a good external advisor would improve their company’s decision-making and risk-mitigation capabilities, only a third (33%) of unprepared people said the same.

The pandemic has taught businesses a lesson

While the argument that hybrid work environments can keep morale and productivity high continues to be debated, these are two things that leaders from all walks of life are trying to preserve as a recession looms. on the horizon. According to Andersen, morale and productivity will be a major factor not only in how companies operate in the future, but also in their approach to how they operate from top to bottom.

“Our survey found that 39% of business leaders felt hybrid working had a somewhat or extremely negative impact on their business,” Andersen said. “Working styles in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have represented a reinvention of the way we work, not just a return to the work environment of the past, as we build a workforce for the future.”

Andersen dismissed the idea that pandemic-induced economic woes were a one-time thing. “Most business leaders don’t see COVID-19 as a one-time event, but rather as something that exposed new risks and changed their thinking,” he said. “The best-prepared leaders strongly believe that COVID-19 has taught them how to react quickly to emerging risks.”

Survey respondents represented companies with at least 500 employees in the US, EU and UK as of September 2022.

The stock market just passed the recession test Sat, 22 Oct 2022 20:05:41 +0000

Four weeks ago, the stock market was at an important base level. Since then, high volatility and widespread warnings of recession have put a strain on investors’ nerves. The test has just ended with the stock market returning above this base level. Here is the photo…

It’s now that reality replaces guesswork

Remember: the stock market is the best leading indicator of what’s to come. Its recent volatile but positive action at the low of the sell-off (as investors suffered a flood of recessionary omens) is particularly noteworthy.

It’s important to note that good results happen during earnings season, when reality outweighs guesswork. Moreover, Wall Street is now fully in its forecast for 2023. The third quarter of 2022 has passed, and the fourth quarter of strong GDP growth has arrived. This opens up 2023 to broader analysis and predictions.

The Happy Result of Negativity: All the Positives Shine Brightly

An old stock market adage goes something like this: When “they” can’t take them (stocks) down anymore, they go up them. Applied to today’s market, this means that when repetitive scares no longer produce selling, it’s time to buy because the negativity effect and downtrend in the market are over.

The Bottom Line: Investing in stocks is a step-by-step process

The stock market is always in a state of flux. Therefore, an accurate view now may become less useful later. More often than not, a view is altered, amended or improved over time. It can also become more precise thanks to new complementary information. What happened recently in the stock market is a good example.

For this reason, I’ve linked my previous five articles (in chronological order) that led up to this one. I have included “The bottom line” paragraphs because they capture a point of particular importance at the time.

MORE FORBESTwo key dates will reveal the fate of the US stock market

“The Bottom Line: Today’s Widespread Negativity Makes the Stock Market Ripe for a Surprise Rise”

“It’s a rule: when ‘everyone’ is bearish, it’s time to own stocks. The simple rationale is that, regardless of negative fundamentals, sell-off stock prices provide a good opportunity.”

MORE FORBESToday’s stock market turmoil is bullish confirmation

“The bottom line: never bet against common sense”

“‘Common sense’ plays a big part in contrarian thinking because popular logic below (and above) always lacks it. Instead, artificial explanations are created to support the belief that things are not overworked.

“A helpful sign that common sense is not at work is when you have an absolute sense that the current trend is here to stay. (At times like this, even professional investors get these deceptive feelings.)”

MORE FORBESWall Street’s Friday Night Scares – Ignore Them

“The End Result – Wall Street Wants What It Can’t Get: Yesterday”

“Yesterday is gone, but the damage isn’t. That’s why it’s important not to look for ‘dead cat bounces’. The strategy of using low-cost debt to produce desirable outcomes is, it -even, dead. This tactic can be found in many places outside of Wall St. Even operating companies and pension funds that should be better known have been lured in by the easy gain through debt calculus. .

“As a result, index fund returns could be weakened due to the passive, own-it-all approach. Therefore, a better strategy is likely to be to invest in actively managed funds – those where the fund managers and analysts are established experts. They will only focus on the future, not on reinventing the good old days.”

MORE FORBESHistorical Overview – Stocks Rise Before Inflation Falls

“The Bottom Line – The Stock Market Looks Forward, So Don’t Wait for the Dust to Settle”

“Often we hear or read after a major trend change, ‘No one could have known.’ In fact, yes, many investors predict what’s to come. While it’s probably not the same people for every major move, the stars still align for some. After all, someone has to initiate the purchase or sale necessary to reverse a trend.

“So is it time to own stocks?

“Looks like. Even if the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the inflation rate remains high, clear and positive changes are happening. Then there’s this ‘only visible good news’ – that the inflation rate, although high, has not increased for months.”

MORE FORBESRecession? No – Interest rates are still too low

“The End Result – Interest Rates Are Not Everything”

“…high real rates do not automatically produce recessions. For a recession (AKA, negative reversal) to set in, there must also be a fundamental reason for it to occur. Typically, these The reasons are economic, financial, and/or investment excesses or imbalances that require correction, otherwise the higher real rates may simply be caused by healthy demand for capital.

Halkitis: the country is not in recession Wed, 19 Oct 2022 14:23:55 +0000

Michael Halkitis, Minister of Economic Affairs.

Michael Halkitis, Minister of Economic Affairs.


Tribune journalist

Economic Affairs Minister Michael Halkitis said the government did not believe the country was in recession as he stressed it was in the midst of a ‘very strong rebound in the economy’ driven by tourism .

He said finance officials remained “cautiously optimistic”.

“My view is that we don’t claim it,” he said. “We are not claiming the recession, okay. There are different opinions.

“Some people think we’re already in it. Some economists say, you know, it’s going to happen.

“Our experience is that we are in the midst of a very strong rebound in our tourism-driven economy.

“Our source market is in the United States, which has the problem of spending too much money, hence the actions of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to try to lower them. My view is, you know, in finance, you are always cautiously optimistic.

He went on to explain a possible upside he sees from a recession, especially for tourism.

“Our experience is that we have a strong rebound in tourism. Tourism officials believe, well, they see, that demand will persist into next year. And so a silver lining of any recession, especially when talking about the United States, is our source market. Over 80% of our visitors come from the United States.

“If there is a recession, I always watch it, maybe someone doesn’t go on vacation that far, decides to come to the Bahamas. So that can even be an advantage. You manage your finances. At the In the event that the economic cycles are up and down, we do not fear a recession.

“You don’t want something to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because if you worry about, “Oh, the recession is coming,” people stop spending money, and then you manifest the recession. Our rebound is strong and therefore we (are) optimistic,” said the minister.